Threat Assessment Isn’t About Seeing the Future, It’s About Understanding the Present Before It Escalates

“No one can see into the future. At best, we can only evaluate what has happened up to the point of the assessment.” — Calhoun & Weston, Threat Assessment and Management Strategies

This principle is foundational in the work of school safety and behavioral threat assessment. It reminds us that our role is not predictive, it is analytical, evaluative, and responsive. We don’t guess. We assess.

In educational settings, threat assessment teams are often called upon to make difficult decisions under conditions of ambiguity and urgency. Whether the concern originates from a teacher’s classroom observation, a report from a peer, or information passed through administrative channels, the common challenge is the same: How do we respond to early indicators of potential harm, quickly, objectively, and with accountability?

One decision making framework that supports this process originally developed in the military and widely adopted in law enforcement, is the OODA Loop.

OODA Loop: A Structured Framework for Threat Assessment

The OODA Loop, developed by U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd, stands for: Observe → Orient → Decide → Act

Initially designed for combat decision making, the OODA Loop has become a relevant tool in complex, high consequence environments, including behavioral threat assessment in schools. Its strength lies in its structure, adaptability, and emphasis on continuous reassessment.

Here’s how it applies in the context of school based threat assessment:

Observe

Collect relevant information from multiple sources: staff observations, student reports, digital content, disciplinary records, past incidents, and contextual details. This step requires broad engagement across the school community, teachers, counselors, administrators, support staff, and even parents.

Orient

Place the observed behavior in context. What are the student’s baseline behaviors? Are there known stressors? Has the student received prior support? Are the behaviors escalating, or are they short term and situational? This phase requires a multidisciplinary lens, drawing from education, mental health, law enforcement, and behavioral expertise. Proper orientation reduces bias and ensures fair, balanced interpretation.

Decide

Based on all known and available information, the threat assessment team must determine the level of concern and whether further action is necessary. This is where structured professional judgment tools are most effective. The decision should be grounded in facts, aligned with state/district policy, and documented thoroughly for consistency and accountability.

Act

Execute the appropriate response, whether that’s continued monitoring, a support plan, a formal intervention, or safety protocols. The action must be proportionate to the level of concern and should align with both the needs of the student and the safety of the school community. Importantly, the OODA Loop continues, each action generates new information that may require teams to re-enter the process at any stage.

Threat Assessment Is a Decision Making Discipline

When implemented correctly, threat assessment is not reactive, it is deliberate. It avoids overreliance on gut instinct or isolated judgment calls. It ensures that every concern is evaluated using a consistent, repeatable process. It reinforces collaborative decision making, not siloed responses.

Educators, counselors, and staff are not expected to predict behavior, they are expected to report, document, and escalate concerns so that trained teams can assess them through a structured process. The more familiar the entire school ecosystem becomes with this process, the more reliable and fair threat management becomes.

Final Thought: Process Over Prediction

Calhoun and Weston’s work reinforces what structured decision making models like the OODA Loop clarify: We are not in the business of seeing the future, we are in the business of managing what is known, what is observable, and what is actionable.

In doing so, we promote safer schools, reduce liability, and increase confidence in the systems designed to support students and protect communities.

🔁 If you're a school administrator, educator, SRO, or mental health professional, how is your team incorporating structured models like the OODA Loop into your threat assessment process?

Let’s continue to elevate our collective practice. The more disciplined our decision making becomes, the more effective our threat management will be.

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